bayprior

Bayesian Prior Elicitation and Diagnostics for Clinical Trials

A toolkit for constructing, validating, and justifying Bayesian priors in clinical trial settings. Implements expert elicitation via quantile matching, the roulette method, and moment matching across six distribution families, linear and logarithmic expert pooling, prior-data conflict diagnostics including the Box p-value, surprise index, information divergence, and Mahalanobis distance, sensitivity analyses with tornado and influence heatmap plots, sceptical, robust, and power priors, and automated prior justification reports. Includes a fully modular 'Shiny' application for interactive use. Methods based on O'Hagan et al. (2006, ISBN:9780470029886), Box (1980) <doi:10.2307/2982063>, Oakley and O'Hagan (2010) <https://tonyohagan.co.uk/shelf/>, Schmidli et al. (2014) <doi:10.1111/biom.12242>, Ibrahim and Chen (2000) <doi:10.1214/ss/1009212673>, Spiegelhalter et al. (1994) <doi:10.2307/2983527>.

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