debtkit

Debt Sustainability Analysis and Fiscal Risk Assessment

Analyses government debt sustainability using the standard debt dynamics framework from Blanchard (1990) <doi:10.1787/budget-v2-art12-en> and the IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis methodology (IMF, 2013) and the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework (IMF, 2022). Projects debt-to-GDP paths, decomposes historical debt changes into interest, growth, and primary balance contributions, and estimates fiscal reaction functions following Bohn (1998) <doi:10.1162/003355398555793>. Produces stochastic fan charts via Monte Carlo simulation, standardised stress tests, and IMF- style heat map risk assessments. Computes S1/S2 sustainability gap indicators used by the European Commission. All methods are pure computation with no external dependencies beyond base R; works with fiscal data from any source.

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